For the first time in almost a decade, meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) in the United States are predicting a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year. But they are cautioning that “there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook”.
Research scientist Philip Klotzbach and his team at CSU predict 13 named storms, including hurricanes and tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will form during the 2023 season – slightly below the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
There hasn’t been a below-average season in the Atlantic basin since 2015.
The main factor in the below-average forecast is an anticipated shift to an El Niño climate pattern, which usually leads to storm-ripping wind shear across much of the Atlantic basin that suppresses hurricane development.
Klotzbach noted that “the intensity of a potential El Niño event is quite uncertain at this time,” meaning that, while it likely will have an impact, it’s unknown how great of an impact that will be.
“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, so if a robust El Niño does not develop, the potential for an active Atlantic hurricane season still exists,” he wrote.
But there is another significant factor at play: Waters in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean “are much warmer than normal,” which supports the formation of more hurricanes – leading the forecasters to say this season’s outlook is lower-confidence than normal.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Source: The Gleaner
