The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has increased its prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
An update was issued two days ago.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30 percent chance).
The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25 percent, down from the 40 percent chances outlined in May’s outlook.
This new update gives the Atlantic a 15 percent chance of seeing a below-normal season.
NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on November 30 — calls for 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).
Of those, 2 to 5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with 70 percent confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre stated: “The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.”
He added: “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
Source- Loop News
