Election Observer's makes statement

 

The 9 November elections in the Turks and Caicos Islands were an important step in returning to democratically

elected government. The voters had a genuine choice from amongst candidates. The process was transparent, accountable and the results reflect the will of the people.

 

The observer mission was impressed by the clear commitment to the democratic process shown by the citizens of Turks and Caicos, their level of participation in the elections and the manner in which voters conducted themselves notwithstanding the long lines requiring them to wait many hours to exercise their right to vote.

 

– I want to add a warm message of congratulation to the citizens and point out that in my 40 years in public life, I have yet to see an equal level of commitment to participating in the parliamentary electoral process – said the Head of Mission Hon. Joe Bossano MP (Gibraltar).

 

Voting took place in an orderly manner despite organisational shortcomings.

During the course of voting, observers visited all 17 polling stations (some of them several times) and evaluated the process as good or very good in the majority of cases. There were examples of polling stations where the process was very well organised. No one was observed voting more than once, and no incidents were noted of anyone trying to inappropriately influence voters who to vote for.

Procedural steps were generally followed – voters’ fingers were inked and identification documents checked in nearly all cases. Notwithstanding efforts and professionalism of election officials, time-consuming voting procedures resulted in long lines in most polling stations visited.

The counting of votes was conducted in a largely transparent manner in presence of candidates, party agents and observers. While there was a degree of variation of counting procedures adopted by election officials, votes were counted accurately and results reported without delays.

The announcement of preliminary results of all-country votes led to one of the candidates requesting the recount, as was his right. This inevitably delayed the process before the elected parliament can begin in effect.

This statement is released before the tabulation and announcement of results as well as the complaints and appeals process. The observation of the elections have been done in a spirit of constructive criticism looking at areas that might in future be organized differently and specifically fewer, shorter lines and delays. The preliminary report with key recommendations will be issued after the recount of

votes and it will be followed by a final report that will go into greater detail and will include more recommendations for possible improvements in the electoral process.

 


2012 Election Results: The Story behind the numbers.

By now everyone is aware that the PNP won the 2012 General Elections 8 seats to the PDM 7 seats. PNP won 6 seats at the Electoral District level and 2 at the All Island level compared to the PDM 4 seats at the Electoral District level and 3 at the All Island level.
Although the PNP won the Government, it only obtained 44.9% of the votes cast at the Electoral District level – i.e. the Popular Vote – which was 331 votes less than the PDM, which got 50.1% of the Popular Vote. For reference, the PPP got 4.9% of the Popular Vote the sole Independent candidate got 0.1%. Together, this brings the total number of votes cast at the Electoral District level to 6,311 – not including the 41 rejected ballots.
Where the numbers tells a fascinating story is at the All Island level where 30,428 votes were cast for the following 11 candidates (in the order of highest to lowest):
1.       Sharlene Cartwright Robinson (PDM): 3,427
2.       Rufus Ewing (PNP): 3,252
3.       Derek Taylor (PDM): 3,191
4.       Washington Misick (PNP): 3,107
5.       Josephine Connolly (PDM): 3,023
6.       Carlos Simons (PNP): 2,899
7.       Samuel Harvey (PDM): 2,896
8.       Oswald Skippings (PDM): 2,894
9.       Wayne Garland (PNP): 2,806
10.   Royal Robinson (PNP): 2,700
11.   Oswald Simons (IND): 233
 
Before it the elections it was widely speculated that Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson would get the highest tally based on her popularity and the amount of non-PDM supporters who said that they would give her a vote. And based on the final results she achieved by obtaining 3,427 of the votes cast.
 
However, to truly understand the impact that Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson and the other All Island candidates individually had on the election, we need to see how much cross party appeal each candidate had, and which candidate (if any) helped or hurt his/her party.
 
To get behind the numbers, I created a Popularity Index with the following assumptions: a) If a candidate is highly popular and everyone voted for him/her their vote tally should equal to the total number of persons who voted at Electoral District level, which was 6,311 – not including those voters whose ballots got rejected – which would give the  candidate a 100% Popularity Index rating, and b) To help their party an All Island candidate would need to get a higher percentage in the Popularity Index than their party got in the Popular Vote. The opposite would be true if the candidate got less than his/her party’s Popular Vote. For example, 3,427 voters cast a vote for Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson out of the 6,311 who voted, which would give her a Popularity Index rating of (3,427/6,311) = 54.3%. In other words, 54% of the voting public voted for her. When we look at the numbers this way, the candidates would rank the same as their total vote tally, which is:
 
1.       Sharlene Cartwright Robinson (PDM): 54.3%
2.       Rufus Ewing (PNP): 51.5%
3.       Derek Taylor (PDM): 50.6%
4.       Washington Misick (PNP): 49.2%
5.       Josephine Connolly (PDM): 47.9%
6.       Carlos Simons (PNP): 45.9%
7.       Samuel Harvey (PDM): 45.9%
8.       Oswald Skippings (PDM): 45.9%
9.       Wayne Garland (PNP): 44.5%
10.   Royal Robinson (PNP): 42.8%
11.   Oswald Simons (IND): 3.7%
 
Now if we take into consideration that 50.1% of all voters identified themselves as PDM by casting a vote for them at Electoral District level and 44.9% did the same for the PNP, we can clearly see who hurt/helped their party and by how many votes. As stated above, to help their party an All Island candidate would need to get a higher percentage in the Popularity Index than his/her party got in the Popular Vote – let us call this difference “Cross-Over Appeal”. For clarity, the All Island candidate would need to get more votes than the total votes cast for his/her party at the Electoral District level. For example, Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson got 54.3% in the Popularity Index rating compared to the 50.1% the PDM got in the Popular Vote, which gives her a positive difference of 4.2% or 263 more votes than her party got at the Electoral District level. In short, Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson got at a minimum of 263 persons who did not vote for the PDM at the Electoral District level to vote for her.
 
If we compare all the All Island candidates by this criteria they rank as follows:
1.       Rufus Ewing (PNP):  6.6%/372 additional votes
2.       Washington Misick (PNP): 4.3%/274 additional votes
3.       Sharlene Cartwright Robinson (PDM): 4.2%/263 additional votes
4.       Carlos Simons (PNP): 1.0%/75 additional votes
5.       Derek Taylor (PDM): 0.4%/27 additional votes
6.       Wayne Garland (PNP): -0.4%/26 less votes
7.       Royal Robinson (PNP): -2.1%/129 less votes
8.       Josephine Connolly (PDM): -2.2%/141 less votes
9.       Samuel Harvey (PDM): -4.2%/268 less votes
10.   Oswald Skippings (PDM): -4.3%/270 less votes
 
Based on the analysis above, the following arguments can be made in my humble opinion:
 
Country At Large
The country is still very much polarized along political lines. Despite all the talk of sharing votes, very few persons did so, with more PDM’s doing so than PNP’s. Although I was with the PNP team in London when the final details of the new Constitution was “negotiated”, I am still not sure what the British Government objective was when they requested that 5 seats in Parliament be All Island seat. My belief is that they wanted to make it easier for Independent candidates to be able to win a seat in Parliament, however, if this was the case, the voting public clearly showed that it is very much party orientated, voting in many cases “Straight down the line.”     
 
Dr. Rufus Ewing
Among the 10 party affiliated All Island candidates, Dr. Ewing has the most cross-over appeal, which is seen by the fact that he got at a minimum 372 persons who did not vote for the PNP at the Electoral District level to vote for him. This is more than likely due to the fact that he came from what would be viewed as a PDM family, thereby making it easier for persons who voted PDM at the Electoral District level to vote for him at the All Island level. This is clear in the case of Blue Hills and Wheeland – Dr. Ewing’s childhood home – where he got 556 All Island votes compared to the PNP 389 Electoral District votes. Being the Chairman of the Civil Servants Association also helped – although this cannot be verified through this analysis – as it would have also made it easier for those Civil Servants who voted PDM at the Electoral District level to give him a vote.
 
Washington Misick
Mr. Misick clearly still has a lot of respect among the voting public as he gained strong support right across the country. His popularity is shown by the fact that he has the second highest “Cross-over Appeal” with 4.3%, which allowed him to get at a minimum 274 persons who did not vote for the PNP at the Electoral District level to vote for him.
 
Sharlene Cartwright-Robinson
Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson was by far the most popular PDM candidate and the most popular All Island candidate overall. Right across the country the PDM base gave her their full support, and her popularity carried right past the political lines where she was able to get at a minimum 263 persons who did not vote for the PDM at the Electoral District level to vote for her. Mrs. Cartwright-Robinson popularity was helped by the fact that she was the most vocal in the Consultative Forum, and the public generally saw her as “their voice” and “as having the public interest at heart”.
 
 
Samuel Harvey and Oswald Skippings
The reason why I am including these two together is because their results were material and it affected the outcome of the election. The poor showing of these two candidates reversed the gains that the PDM made in the Popular Vote and gave the PNP the election victory. This can be clearly seen in the fact that at a minimum 268 persons who voted for the PDM at the Electoral District level did not give Mr. Harvey a vote, with 270 persons doing the same to Mr. Skippings. If those PDM’s who withheld their votes from these gentlemen had voted for them, they would have gotten a total of 3,175 and 3,174 votes respectively, which would have given them the 4th and 5th spots – as they would have garnered more votes than Washington Misick and Josephine Connolly – among the All Island candidates. This would have given the PDM a total of 4 seats at the All Island level and the government with a total of 8 seats overall.  
 
In addition to all of the above, the way the electoral boundaries were drawn also benefited the PNP, as the PDM large popular support was isolated in pockets, which despite allowing them win big in some areas, made it difficult for them to turn the same into a majority of seats won at the Electoral District level.    
 
E. Jay Saunders

GSS Updates Residents on Grand Turk Water Supply System

The Ministry of Government Support Services (GSS) Water Undertaking has how completed several projects that is expected to improve the water supply on Grand Turk.  Last week a project to improve the level of service to Breezy Brae, The Ridge and North Creek was completed and the pipeline is being pressurized in improve the supply. Water Undertaking is therefore we urging customers to check all valves and internal plumbing to avoid wastage of water.  This practice will help to accelerate the pipeline pressurization process.

 

It is expected that by November 16, 2012 working pressure will be reached in the Breezy Brae area, and The Ridge and North Creek by November 30, 2012

 

As a further streamlining measure, the Central Issue Point in Back Salina will be re-commissioned by December 10, 2012.  This facility is being put back in service to better serve customers purchasing water in bulk, small users at the North Issue Point and improve the congestion of traffic on Hospital Road.

 

GSS has also undertaken to keep the Grand Turk Hospital supplied with water after the failure of the institution’s Reverse Osmosis plant. A pipeline has been constructed and commissioned into service to keep the facility supplied with water.

 


Britain Releases Radical Cleric on Bail

British authorities have released radical Muslim cleric Abu Qatada from prison on bail, a day after he won his appeal against deportation to Jordan to face terrorism charges.

Qatada was transported Tuesday from a high-security prison in central Britain to his family home in London. A few protesters had gathered near his home, calling for continued efforts to deport him. Qatada, described by British officials as the top European deputy to former al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, has been detained in Britain for most of the past decade under Britain's anti-terrorism laws.

Qatada will be allowed to live at home, but he will be under curfew 16 hours a day. He will be allowed to leave his home only between the hours of 8 a.m. and 4 p.m.

Britain's Home Office says it strongly disagrees with Monday's ruling and will appeal.

Home Secretary Theresa May had ordered his extradition after being given assurances by Jordan that no information obtained through torture would be used against him.

The Special Immigration Appeals Commission on Monday blocked Qatada's extradition order, saying it could not be guaranteed that he would get a fair trial in Jordan.

Jordan convicted Qatada of terrorism charges related to two bomb plots in 1998. He was tried in absentia.

Britain has been trying to deport Qatada since 2001, but its efforts have repeatedly been blocked by the courts. In January, the European Court of Human Rights ruled against the deportation because evidence used against him in Jordan may have been obtained using torture.


Eurozone interest rates remain at 0.75%, economy 'weak'

The European Central Bank (ECB) has held the benchmark eurozone interest rate at the record low of 0.75%, as had been expected.

The rate has been at this level for four months, after July's cut from 1%.

Explaining the decision, ECB president Mario Draghi said that economic activity in the euro area was "expected to remain weak".

Earlier on Thursday, the Bank of England also kept its main interest rate unchanged, leaving it at 0.5%.

"Inflation is likely to remain above 2% for the remainder of 2012," said Mr Draghi at the ECB's news conference, citing high energy prices and increases in taxes in some euro area countries.

But he said price rises were "expected to fall below that level in the course of next year".

"The underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued."

Confidence 'improved'

In September, the ECB announced a bond-buying programme to try to ease the financial woes of a number of member states.

Under the initiative, called outright monetary transactions or OMTs, the ECB will buy a country's government bonds after the administration in question has made a formal request for assistance.

The scheme has already been viewed as an effective insurance policy. This has eased the pressure on the bond yields of Spain and other indebted nations.

"As we said before, we are ready to undertake OMTs, which will help to avoid extreme scenarios," said Mr Draghi.

"Financial market confidence has visibly improved on the back of our decisions as regards outright monetary transactions," he said.

In response to questions, Mr Draghi said the ECB stood ready to help eurozone governments, but it was up to individual governments to make a request for help.

"On a Spanish request I will decline any comment. It's entirely in the hands of governments."

So far, no eurozone nation has asked for help.

On Wednesday, Greek MPs narrowly backed a fresh round of austerity measures, despite violent protests across the country.

The austerity package aimed at securing the next round of bailout funds for Greece was passed with the support of 153 MPs in the 300-member parliament.

Welcoming the move, Mr Draghi said "It's a very important step that the Greek government and the Greek citizens have undertaken. It really represents progress from what it was a few months ago."


Dexia gets further aid from France and Belgium

France and Belgium have agreed to pump a further 5.5bn euros ($7bn; £4.4bn) into struggling bank Dexia, after it reported another large loss.

The bank, which was bailed out by France and Belgium last year, posted a third-quarter net loss of 1.23bn euros.

Meanwhile, French bank Societe Generale saw third quarter net profits sink 86% to 85m euros as it dealt with the cost of exiting from Greece.

In Germany, Commerzbank reported net quarterly profits of 78m euros.

Dexia's troubles

Under the terms of the aid for Dexia, Belgium will inject 53% of the funding, with France providing the rest.

The prospect of injecting more money into Dexia threatens to undermine both countries' efforts to rein in their deficits, as the European Union is putting eurozone budgets under intense scrutiny.

Dexia's latest loss brought the total loss for the first nine months of the year to 2.4bn euros.

Part of the reason for the loss in the third quarter was a loss of 599m euros after Dexia sold its Turkish business DenizBank.

Uncertain outlook

Societe Generale's third-quarter results were hit by one-off losses which resulted from the sale of its Greek business Geniki and fund-management unit TCW.

Excluding these items, Societe Generale joined rival investment banks, such as BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, in reporting a strong rebound in revenues from trading financial instruments like bonds.

However, the company warned the outlook for 2013 was uncertain.

"Economic growth should remain sluggish overall, with a key uncertainty in the US - the fiscal cliff - in the beginning of the year, said chief executive Frederic Oudea, in an interview with Reuters TV.

Germany's second-biggest bank, Commerzbank, had good news for investors as it said it was back in profit in the third quarter of this year.

The bank unveiled a net profit of 78m euros for the July-to-September period, although that was lower than analysts had expected.

Commerzbank's chief executive, Martin Blessing, signalled challenges ahead saying the market environment would "remain volatile in the coming months".

"We are, therefore, continuing with our strict cost management, consistently reducing non-strategic portfolios further and strengthening our profitability," he said.


Banana war ends after 20 years

An international trade dispute over bananas dating back two decades has finally been settled.

The European Union and ten Latin American countries signed an agreement to formally end eight separate World Trade Organisation (WTO) cases.

The head of the WTO Pascal Lamy called it a truly historic moment.

The formal agreement followed the EU agreeing in December 2009 to gradually reduce the tariffs on Latin American bananas.

Latin American banana exporters had long protested against EU tariffs designed to protect small growers in former European colonies in Africa and the Caribbean.

"After so many twists and turns, these complicated and politically contentious disputes can finally be put to bed," Mr Lamy said.

"It has taken so long that quite a few people who worked on the cases, both in the secretariat and in member governments have retired long ago."

The December 2009 agreement involved the EU reducing its tariffs on imported bananas from 176 euros ($224; £140) per tonne to 114 euros per tonne within eight years.


Iranian jets 'fired on US drone'

Iranian fighter jets shot at an unmanned US drone during a routine surveillance mission over the Gulf, Pentagon officials have said.

The defence department said the drone was not damaged in the incident, which it said took place in international air space on 1 November.

Pentagon spokesman George Little said the president had been informed.

Last year, the Iranians captured a US drone they said had invaded their air space and refused to give it back.

The Americans said the drone had malfunctioned.

After the latest incident, Mr Little said the US would continue surveillance in the area.

"The United States has communicated to the Iranians that we will continue to conduct surveillance flights over international waters over the Arabian Gulf," he said.

Mr Little insisted that the drone had never been into Iranian air space.

According to the Pentagon, two SU-25 jets intercepted the Predator drone and fired "multiple rounds".

They missed their target, and the drone was guided back to base.

Defence officials have a policy of not commenting on surveillance missions, but said they would give details this time because of media reports about the confrontation.


President Barack Obama to visit Burma

Fresh from his election win, Barack Obama will this month become the first US president to visit Burma, the White House says.

He will meet opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein.

It is part of a three-leg tour from 17 to 20 November that will also take in Thailand and Cambodia.

The government of Burma has begun implementing economic, political and other reforms, a process the Obama administration sought to encourage.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was previously the most senior US official to go to Burma when she visited in December 2011.

The Burma stop is part of a trip built around the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Cambodia.

The US has appointed a full ambassador to Burma and suspended sanctions to reward the country for political prisoner releases and the election of Nobel laureate Suu Kyi to parliament.

America is also set to ease its import ban on goods from Burma, a key part of remaining US sanctions.

Analysts say the Obama administration sees in the country's political changes an opportunity to help counter the influence of China in the region.

Human rights groups are likely to criticise Mr Obama's visit as premature, given that the ruling government has failed to prevent outbreaks of communal violence in the west of the country.


Iranian blogger Sattar Beheshti dies after arrest

The death of an Iranian blogger has been reported by his family a week after he was taken into custody.

Sattar Beheshti, 35, was arrested by Iranian police on charges of "actions against national security on social networks and Facebook."

His exact whereabouts and the manner of his death are unclear. Mr Beheshti's family say police told them to pick up his body on Wednesday.

Iranian authorities have offered no official comment on the case.

Mr Beheshti spent one night in Tehran's notorious Evin prison, where he wrote an official complaint to prison authorities alleging ill-treatment, before being moved to an unknown location.

It is thought Mr Beheshti was targeted for his writings on political and social issues on his blog and on Facebook.

Mr Beheshti's family say they have been prevented from visiting his grave, with the exception of his brother-in-law.

Campaign group Reporters Without Borders called on the Iranian authorities "to clarify the exact circumstances" of Mr Beheshti's death and urged the international community "not to allow this crime to go unpunished".

France and the UK have issued similar appeals for more information on Mr Beheshti's death, but there has been no response from Iranian officials.