A month after the official close of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, the United Kingdom-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is predicting there is a 40 per cent chance the next hurricane season will be above average.
There is also a 33 per cent likelihood the season will be normal and 27 per cent it will be below average.
However, TSR said based on current and projected climate activities the “extended-range forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2014 anticipates near-norm activity”.
The University College London experts predict that the tropical cyclone activity for the 2014 season, which will run from June 1 to November 30, will be 20 per cent below the last 10 years’ norm.
TSR is also forecasting that the region could be in for at least 14 tropical storms, including six hurricanes, with three being intense.
Four tropical storms and two hurricanes are also projected to make landfall on the United States mainland.
The experts noted the forecast was based on somewhat warmer than average sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean during August and September 2014.
The group expressed that these long-range calculations are largely filled with uncertainties.
TSR said it has successfully predicted six of the last 10 hurricane seasons from as early as December in the previous years.
Their extended-range forecast for the 2013 hurricane season was incorrect.
