For the next eight days, the trade reports are going to come more and more quickly. Reporters will disagree on lots of details — how serious certain talks are, whether the Knicks will have enough cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony as a free agent — but if you look carefully, some larger truths will begin to emerge. Here are a few, with my take:
• New York’s package in ‘Melo deal. The talks between Denver and New York have reached their most serious stage. The question now is whether the Knicks can get the Nuggets to accept an offer that is palatable from New York’s perspective. If the two sides can’t meet in the middle, Denver may simply keep Anthony and force him to either accept its extension or take his chances in free agency under a new collective bargaining agreement that will be less favorable to the players.
What, then, is the middle between Denver and New York? That’s impossible to know for certain, but if you read the most recent reports from Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski, Newsday‘s Alan Hahn and the New York Daily News’ Frank Isola, a few things come into view.
The Knicks appear content to center a package on Wilson Chandler or Danilo Gallinari, but not both. And according to Hahn, the Knicks may be open to including a swap of Raymond Felton for Chauncey Billups. Such a move would trim Denver’s player salary bill this season by about $6.1 million — a significant thing for a team set to pay the luxury tax. It also gives the Nuggets a veteran point guard to help guide Ty Lawson for another season. Toss in Eddy Curry’s expiring contract and a first-rounder the Knicks could pry from Minnesota for Anthony Randolph, and you may have something.
The guess here — and it’s just a guess — is that the Knicks would rather part with Chandler than Gallinari. Both are positional tweeners, but Chandler, with more of a mid-range game and a less proven track record from three-point range, is more duplicative of Anthony. He’s also a restricted free agent in line for a decent payday; the Knicks will have to renounce Chandler if they end up having to chase Carmelo in the free-agent market.
If the Nuggets insist on Gallinari instead of Chandler — or on adding Landry Fields into the Chandler package — does that end things? What if they attempt to pawn off Al Harrington or Chris Andersen? For a Knicks team looking to maintain some future payroll flexibility, those long-term deals could be lethal to their Chris Paul/Deron Williams/Dwight Howard dreams.
• Could Knicks get ‘Melo in free agency? Let’s revisit this one last time: There is some major disagreement over whether the Knicks could sign Anthony as a free agent if it comes to that, but all that analysis — including what I’ve written — is ultimately not very meaningful, since we don’t know what the next collective bargaining agreement will look like.
Here’s what we do know: The current salary cap is a shade more than $58 million. The Knicks have $43.4 million in salary committed for next season, and that doesn’t include Chandler or Andy Rautins’ non-guaranteed deal. They’ll also have to set aside some money for their first-round pick and a small charge for each empty roster slot.
Would that leave enough room, under current rules, to sign Anthony to a max contract? Maybe — if the Knicks can move Randolph and one other player (such as Ronny Turiaf), they could open the requisite space.
But as Larry Coon reminds us, we don’t know what the salary cap will be when Anthony can actually become a free agent. It could be $58 million. It could be $50 million with fewer exceptions. It could include a much lower maximum salary. Heck, it could even include some sort of amnesty provision for Anthony’s class of free agents and teams unlucky (or unwise) enough to have their cap room slated for the exact moment the CBA disappears.
We just don’t know, which is why saying the Knicks are guaranteed to be able to snag ‘Melo as a free agent may be assuming too much.
• Hornets eyeing J.R. Smith, Jamison.
The Hornets are active, according to both Wojnarowski and Ken Berger of CBSSports. That’s not a surprise. This team, ranked just 21st in points per possession, needs more reliable scoring options if it wants to seriously compete in the Western Conference playoffs. Two names keep coming up in reports: Smith and Antawn Jamison.
Smith is an on expiring contract, which makes him extra attractive. The Hornets would seem to already have a Smith-like spark plug in Marcus Thornton, but they are not quite equivalent players. Smith is a couple of inches taller, allowing him to play some nominal small forward when the Hornets go to three-guard sets. He’s better off the dribble and a far more creative passer when he decides to play solid team ball (which isn’t close to all the time).
Both are inconsistent defenders, but I’d like to see what Smith could do on this end in a more focused, accountable system.
As for Jamison? I’d steer clear. He’s a pick-and-pop upgrade over Jason Smith and David Andersen, and he has an array of flip shots they couldn’t dream of. But he’s set to make $15 million next season, and that’s a lot to pay a guy who would serve as a backup player on the current Hornets team. That’s money I’d rather use to try to re-sign David West (via Bird Rights, if they still exist), who is a much better defender and rebounder than Jamison now.
The Hornets have expiring or non-guaranteed (in terms of future money) deals tied to Willie Green, Marcus Banks and Andersen to use as trade bait.
• Cavs working hard to deal. That seems to be the consensus, and the Cavs would obviously love to dump Jamison. They also have the huge trade exception they received in the LeBron James deal, and Berger reports that they are willing to use it to absorb another team’s unwanted contract — if they get something nice (a young asset, a first-rounder) in return. That exception also positions the Cavs to be facilitators in three- or four-team deals.
Their most marketable player, in terms of talent, is probably Anthony Parker, with both Chicago and Boston potentially interested, according to Berger. That’s not surprising; I mentioned Parker as someone the Celtics might target should they receive indications it might take Marquis Daniels longer than hoped to recover from a bruised spinal cord.
Parker’s deal is expiring, so the Cavs would need some incentive to flip him. It will be interesting to see if anyone bids anything more than a second-rounder and a small chunk of cash.
• The buyout candidates. The Celtics are reportedly interested in both Troy Murphy and Richard Hamilton should either become available, and Wojnarowski lists a bunch of teams that would give Murphy a look. I gave my thoughts on this Tuesday.
• The Suns are floating Josh Childress, according to Wojnarowski. Good luck. He’s set to make $27 million over the four seasons after this one. He can be a very useful player, but he’s going to be tough to move at that price. I’d have liked to have seen Phoenix give him a little more run earlier in the season, but that ship may have sailed now that Mickael Pietrus is playing so well as the team’s designated lockdown wing defender off the bench (along with Jared Dudley).
Source:Zac Lowe on ‘The Point Forward’
