The value of exports from Trinidad and Tobago is estimated to have increased by 68.7 percent for the first 11 months of 2022, according to a report from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) entitled “Trade Trends Estimates Latin America and the Caribbean 2023 edition”.
The report states that T&T’s exports “maintained a remarkable growth rate in 2022, driven by high oil and gas prices”.
The report also noted that the country’s export growth in 2022 over 2021 followed an increase in the value of exports by 70.6 percent in 2021 over 2020.
The European Union, the United States, Latin America, and the Caribbean accounted for most of the expansion, said the IDB report.
“Exports from Caribbean countries increased at an estimated rate of 38 percent in 2022, after growing by 44.4 percent in 2021. The United States accounted for almost two-thirds of the expansion, and the European Union contributed an additional third.
“Performance varied widely in the subregion. Exports continued to contract in Suriname, while in Jamaica, they grew only slightly. Exports accelerated in Barbados and Belize and continued on a growth path in Guyana, but at a lower rate than that observed in 2021. In Trinidad and Tobago, they continued to expand strongly,” said the IDB report.
The region’s export performance was mainly explained by higher prices, while volumes lost momentum.
The report said the value of goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean increased at an estimated rate of 18.8 percent in 2022, but that this was a reduction from the export growth of 27.8 per cent in 2021.
In 2022, the prices of most commodities exported by Latin America and the Caribbean climbed.
Between January and November 2022, the year-on-year prices of oil (43 percent), coffee (29.1 percent), soybeans (13 percent), and sugar (5.5 percent) all increased. In contrast, the prices of iron ore and copper fell by 28.9 percent and 4.9 percent year-on-year, respectively.
According to the report, the shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine “further increased the prices of Latin America and the Caribbean’s main export commodities”.
However, “in most countries, the uptrend changed direction in the middle of the year in response to slowing global demand, forecasts of low growth, and the appreciation of the US dollar.”
The report said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted exports via the price channel. But the price increase mainly favored the Latin American and Caribbean economies that are net commodity exporters, most of which are in South America.
“However, going forward, the trade performance of the region will depend on demand from its main partners: growth forecasts are weak due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, accelerating inflation, restrictive monetary policies, and new outbreaks of Covid, particularly in China. These factors are likely to affect LAC’s export volumes in the coming months,” according to the report.
In the coming months, the export growth rate is expected to slow in response to the downward trend in commodity prices, the war in Ukraine, restrictive monetary policies to reduce inflation, and the slowdown in global growth, the latest edition of Trade Trends Estimates: Latin America and the Caribbean has found.
“After a rapid recovery in 2021, a series of global shocks have sent exports from Latin America and the Caribbean into a slowdown that will continue into 2023. Reversing this trend will be key to shoring up economic growth in the region,” said Paolo Giordano, principal economist at the IDB’s Integration and Trade Sector, who coordinated the publication.
This estimate draws on data from 18 Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. The six Caribbean countries that provided data for the report are Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.
The records for Honduras and Panama do not include special trade regimes (STR), which account for about 50 percent of total exports from Honduras and 80 percent of those from Panama.
Source-Trinidad Express
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