As we rapidly approach the official start of the 2012 Hurricane Season, experts are predicting a quieter season.
Two recognized hurricane experts say “this year’s storm season could be the quietest one in the past 3 decades”.
The preliminary data came from Professor Emeritus William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotsbach, research specialists headquartered at Colorado State University in Colorado, USA.
The duo who made a presentation at this year’s National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida indicated that the Tropical Atlantic Ocean is cooler than normal and the La Nina weather pattern is giving way to El Nino.
Drs. Gray and Klotzbach were not presenting their 2012 forecast but were instead presenting a brief qualitative update of large-scale atmospheric ocean conditions likely to impact the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Dr. Gray also made a presentation to the conference on “Hurricane Multi Decadal Variability and Lack of Global Warming Influence”.
The duo’s first Official Hurricane forecast for 2012 comes out on Wednesday, April 4, 2012 which will show that the Atlantic Hurricane basin “will likely have less activity than the average 1981 – 2010 season”.
Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through November 30.
Even though there is the potential for a quieter season, this doesn’t mean we are not going to have hurricanes so we must still be prepared, there will still be hurricanes and it only takes one to cause extensive damage, warns Dr. Klotzbach.
Drs. Gray and Klatzbach’s 2012 predictions will also indicate that there will be a more than 40% chance of one hurricane making Caribbean landfall and a 50% chance of a US landfall.
However, the team did not give the actual prediction numbers of expected storms only saying “those numbers will come on April 4”. The other seasonal forecasts for 2012 will come on June 1 and August 3.
A small contingent of Emergency Managers from the Caribbean attended this year’s conference. Dominica’s only representative was the island’s Former Disaster Coordinator Cecil Shillingford.
In related news, Mr. Shillingford was nominated to a small committee to re-organize the Caribbean’s Session and participation in the Annual National Hurricane Conference in the United States. The Committee to be chaired by Paul Martin of St. Martin will get consensus on Topics for presentation at next year’s Conference, select a strong team of presenters and work towards a greater participation from the Caribbean at future Hurricane Conferences.
Next year’s conference will be held in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Meantime, Former National Disaster Coordinator Cecil Shillingford is calling on Dominicans to fully prepare themselves for this year’s Hurricane Season notwithstanding this year’s forecasted prediction of a probable quieter Hurricane Season to be released on Wednesday.
Mr. Shillingford states that according to Dr. Klotsbach’s comments to this year’s National Hurricane Conference in Orlando it only takes one good hurricane or storm to cause millions of dollars of damage. Although predictions are usually for 7 to 9 Hurricanes a year, on average most times only one or two directly strike us or come close to us and we see the kind of damage they can inflict on us so we should not take any comfort in a prediction of a quieter season, says Shillingford.
While there may be fewer storms this year have we sufficiently addressed the issues relating to our vulnerabilities?
Are we building better and adhering to the codes? Are we building in less vulnerable areas like well away from the coastal water marks, away from areas prone to flooding, landslides or other hazards? Are we retrofitting existing buildings to withstand the fury of hurricanes? Are we outfitting our structures with Hurricane Shutters and other safety devices? Are we insured for ALL Hazards?
Are we maintaining our Shelters to ensure they are safe to put vulnerable people who may require sheltering? Are we maintaining our drainage systems to include roadside drains, gullies and ravines? Are we de-silting our rivers and doing river training? Are we pruning or cutting dangerous trees? Are we informing ourselves and others on the effects of Hydro-meteorological systems? Are we training our people in Disaster Risk Reduction and other Disaster Management issues?
Are we securing our livelihoods? Are we seeking to maintain our food security primarily through Agriculture? Are we seriously mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction into our National Developmental thrust? Are we taking care of our Environment? Just a few questions put forward by Shillingford.
Just remember September last year, when a lingering rain-filled band of clouds from Ophelia coupled with our vulnerabilities and weaknesses in Development caused widespread and costly damage to the areas from Roseau to St. Joseph on the West Coast.
By Cecil P. Shillingford
